Conservative Papa

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2009atlan.shtml

The National Hurricane Center is thrilled to have another hurricane to track as an interesting finish to a yawner of an Atlantic hurricane season. If Ida manages to push past the Yucatan Peninsula and make a showing in the Gulf of Mexico, that will be strange indeed!

Ivan hit the Florida panhandle in September 2004. The name, Ivan, is a Russian Name. Gustav is a German name, though I thought it was Russian, too. Hurricanes with Russian names and hurricanes with German names that sound Russian like the Pensacola area. Everyone says Gustav will go to Louisiana, but that’s all political hype.

Hanna could go to the Carolinas or it could cross Florida or the Florida straits to enter the Gulf of Mexico and end up in Pensacola. Hanna is a female storm and changing her mind is a woman’s prerogative. Also, the name, Hannah, is the same coming. These two elements make this storm totally unpredictable.

The storms are all lined up and ready to come see us. The yellow area probably won’t do much, but the red area should become Ike. I like Ike. I would really like Ike to go somewhere else, but hurricanes with names that begin with “I” and come in the middle of September like to vacation in Pensacola.

So there you have it. If the lady can make up her mind, the Florida panhandle just might have three hurricanes in as many weeks. If you don’t like that outlook, check out these links to see what the supposed experts know:

• The accuweather.com Expert Analysis videos are helpful. Instead of a pretty lady in front of a satellite picture, you get a guy in front of his computer talking about and drawing lines on weather images. Informal, yet very informational. Here’s the video I watched this morning.
• The amateurs over at hurricanecity.com have a pretty extensive site. I usually click in the corner of the main image for the model tracks. Here’s their video.
• Oh, and check this guy out. He says the NWS knows more than the NHC about where Gustav will go.

From: “NHC Mail (Atlantic Public)”
Subject: Welcome to the NHC Advisory Mailing List - 2008
Date: Wed, 21 May 2008 8:30:00 AM EDT

Hello again, and welcome to the National Hurricane Center Automated Advisory Email Service. In preparation for the start of the 2008 Hurricane Season, we will be resuming our Automated Advisory Email Service. The East Pacific season began May 15th and the Atlantic season begins June 1st.

Subject: Notice to NHC email list (2007 season ends)
Date: Fri, 30 Nov 2007 5:35:00 PM EST
——————————————————————-
National Hurricane Center’s
Automated Advisory Email Service

(This message is being sent to each NHC list you subscribe to.)
——————————————————————-

The National Hurricane Center thanks you for subscribing to the automated email advisory system this past season. If you were subscribed and no longer wish to receive the advisory email, then follow the unsubscription instructions at the end of this message or visit the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/signup.shtml

Next season, the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks will start on May 15, for those subscribed to the Pacific lists.

Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will be issued starting June 1.

If you have any comments about this service, please feel free to send us email (noted below).

Thank you again, and we will see you next season!

Check out the NHC season summary, should you care to read through it. Keep in mind, some experts disagree as to whether some of the named storms should have been named at all. The suspected agenda in naming these questionable storms, of course, is to promote the idea that global climate change is causing an increase in tropical storm activity.

Whether the season was slightly above or below average, we still thank God for keeping us safe — because it only takes one hurricane to really mess up life as we know it!

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING… AND A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

I don’t like this, no, not one little bit! My layman’s opinion is that this is Jerry in utero. When the wave reaches the Gulf, it will feed on the warm water and become a hurricane. The trouble with hurricanes in the Gulf is that they run into land sooner or later!

Tropical Depression Four became Tropical Storm Dean today.

Tropical Storm DEAN

Hurricane Ivan’s track

Ivan certainly was terrible, but there is no way to tell how mean Dean will be. It is interesting to note that they originated in about the same spot.  For now, we just keep an eye on it and make sure we are ready for another Big One.

Tropical Storm CHANTAL Update
000
WTNT63 KNHC 311213
TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007 815 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH…65 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHANTAL IS LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES…530 KM…SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH…37 KM/HR. CHANTAL IS NOT A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

This looks to be another “shot in the air,” so to speak. Last year, God shot a bunch of storms straight up through the Atlantic. I hope this season turns out about the same. The benefit of Chantal is that it adds one to the count of named storms and keeps some of the egg off the faces of the hurricane forecasters who predicted a certain number of named storms for this season. Of course, the season is only half over, and there may be another depression brewing!

Hello again, and welcome to the National Hurricane Center AutomatedAdvisory Email Service. In preparation for the start of the 2007 Hurricane Season, we will be resuming our Automated Advisory Email Service shortly. The East Pacific season begins May 15th and the Atlantic season begins June 1st.

The weather report stated the water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico at 82° F — already!  Hurricanes love warm water.

How many hurricanes does it take to changes a person’s life?
Just one.

Well, the renowned Dr. Gray with the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has come out with an updated tropical storm forecast for 2007. A very active cyclone seasons is expected with 17 named storms. Strange, this time last year these folks were forecasting 17 named storms for the 2006 season. How did their crystal ball line up with reality? There were only 9 named storms. Two of these made landfall on the US mainland as tropical storms.

Where did these scientific guess makers go wrong and why should we believe them this year? From the comparison of last year’s forecast with observations:

Our 2006 seasonal hurricane forecast was not successful. We anticipated a well above-average season, and the season had activity at slightly below-average levels. We did catch this downward trend beginning with our early August update We attribute a large portion of this forecast over-prediction to a late-developing El Niño and increased mid-level dryness in the tropical Atlantic.

and from the recent forecast:

This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 40 years of past global reanalysis data and is then tested on an additional 15 years of global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have increased our forecast from our early December prediction due largely to the rapid dissipation of El Niño which has occurred over the past couple of months. Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are observed. We expect either neutral or weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Tropical and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above their long-period averages.

As usual, those misbehaved meteorological children, El Niño and La Niña, cause the Weather Man much chagrin. It’s easy to laugh at last year’s gaff, but I’ll laugh later. In my novice opinion, this year’s forecast is probably right on track. It was by God’s grace that no major hurricane made US landfall and the fiercest storms blew themselves out in the icy waters of the North Atlantic last year. Join me in praying He will do the same again this season!

Let’s all hold our breath until we can have another laugh at Dr. Gray’s expense.